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2024-12-13 05:01:28

Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting: The change of policy tone "not seen for several years" is more direct to the determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market. Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting said that although the draft of the meeting did not involve specific economic target figures, the change of policy tone was "not seen for several years": (1) "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment" appeared for the first time in the draft of the conference, and we understand that this is likely to mean that the official target of deficit ratio will be unconventional. (2) "Moderately loose monetary policy" has reappeared since July 2010, and it has been "steady" during the period. Even in the 14-15 monetary easing cycle, there was no adjustment of this wording, which paved the way for the expectation of monetary easing in 25 years; (3) The "more active fiscal policy" has reappeared since July 2020. Under the special background of the 20-year epidemic, the official target of deficit ratio in that year was set at 3.6%, which was the highest since 2010. The change of tone after four years also indicates that the deficit space in 25 years is expected to be further opened.Armed representatives of the Syrian opposition: I hope to establish cooperative relations with the international community including Russia. Ahmed Toma, head of the armed delegation of the Syrian opposition in Astana talks on Syria, told the Russian media on the 9 th that the Syrian opposition is committed to establishing an independent democratic country in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and hopes to establish cooperative relations based on mutual respect with all parties including Russia. Sputnik news agency & radio reported on the same day that Toma said in an interview with the satellite news agency that the Syrian opposition will devote itself to maintaining the operation of state institutions, ensuring security and improving people's livelihood in the future. "We hope to build a civilized, independent and democratic country according to UN Security Council Resolution 2254." Toma said that the Syrian opposition "hopes to achieve stability and has no intention of punishing anyone." (CCTV News)Hua Fu Securities Interpretation of the Politburo Meeting in December: More incremental policies can be expected in the future. The Hua Fu Securities Research Report pointed out that the Politburo Meeting in December decided to implement more active and promising macro policies in economic work next year, which released major signals to the market, including: First, it proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy, which was also proposed in response to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Second, it is proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is more positive than the previous statement. Moreover, from the historical experience, the "moderately loose" monetary policy implemented in China after the last financial crisis in 2009-2010 has significantly enhanced its support for economic growth. This change in expression will send a clearer and clearer policy signal to the market. Third, it is proposed for the first time to strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment, and more incremental policies can be expected in the future. Fourth, after the policy adjustment, the expansion of domestic demand will be put in the first place, which highlights the importance and policy determination of expanding domestic demand next year. The follow-up consumption promotion policy may exert its efforts in many aspects, such as continuously promoting the trade-in of consumer goods, introducing incremental measures related to service consumption, and improving the support and protection of low-and middle-income people. Fifth, it is clearly proposed to stabilize the property market stock market, which will help to continuously consolidate the momentum of stabilization and recovery of the real estate market and give full play to the important functions of the capital market.


Trump Group plans to build more projects in Saudi real estate market, and Trump Group and luxury real estate developer Dar Global Plc plan to build two new luxury projects in Saudi Arabia in order to benefit from the country's fast-growing real estate market.USD/JPY rose more than 0.50% in the day and is now reported at 150.63.Dongfang Jincheng: In 2025, the policy interest rate cut may reach 0.5 percentage points. the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Dongfang Jincheng judges that in 2025, the central bank will continue to implement vigorous interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, among which the policy rate cuts may reach 0.5 percentage points, which is significantly higher than the rate cut of 0.3 percentage points this year, and the interest rates of various structural monetary policy instruments will also be lowered in a timely manner, thus guiding the financing costs of enterprises and residents to go down. It is not ruled out that in 2025, it is possible to continue to implement a large-scale targeted interest rate cut on residential mortgages by greatly guiding the downward trend of LPR quotations for more than five years. (The Paper)


Media: El Salvador will change its pioneering bitcoin practice in exchange for IMF transactions. According to media reports, two people familiar with the matter revealed that El Salvador is expected to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a loan plan of 1.3 billion US dollars in the next two to three weeks. In exchange, El Salvador will change its pioneering practice of using bitcoin as legal tender and reduce the government deficit. A delegation of the International Monetary Fund has arrived in San Salvador to finalize the details of the agreement with the government. People familiar with the matter said that the transaction is expected to release another $1 billion in loans from the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank in the next few years. This loan plan must be approved by the board of directors of the International Monetary Fund, which will enable this Central American country to return to the international financial circle after several years of relative isolation. The country passed a law in June 2021, making it the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. However, the International Monetary Fund opposes El Salvador's adoption of digital currency on the grounds that financial stability and integrity are at risk, and urges the government to stop accepting cryptocurrency as legal tender.The third batch of CSI A 500 ETFs under Rongtong, Puyin AXA and Yongying was approved and will be released soon. Less than two weeks after the report, the third batch of CSI A 500 ETFs got the approval. The reporter learned from the industry that the CSI A500ETF of many fund companies, including Rongtong Fund, Puyin AXA Fund, Yongying Fund, Haifutong Fund and Galaxy Fund, got the approval. Previously, nine fund companies reported the product. So far, more than 50 Public Offering of Fund managers have reported 107 products related to the CSI A500 Index. After excluding the linked funds, 22 CSI A500ETF have been issued and listed, with a current market scale of nearly 220 billion; Twenty-two products in CSI A500 index increase products have been approved for issuance; In addition, nearly 20 CSI A500 index products have been approved.Black futures continued to rise, the main contracts of coking coal and coke rose by more than 3%, the main contracts of thread and iron ore rose by nearly 3%, and the main contracts of hot coil rose by more than 2%.

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